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Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Daniel Miessler — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:42:31 -0000

Lesson learned. Glad to be wrong on this one.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Daniel Miessler — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:42:08 -0000

Not well, it appears. Thanks for stopping by.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

MZ — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:07:31 -0000

how'd this prediction work out for ya?

jackass.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

richmanwisco — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 10:37:21 -0000

The time has come and gone, and you were wrong. Now what?

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Julian Scutts — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 08:42:13 -0000

Strange. The most extreme utterance so far on Iran has come from a leading Democrat. To 'obliterate' Iran suggests the massive use of weapons of mass destruction. That might provoke Iran's neighbors to take drastic measures themselves. To avoid this risk the attackers would have to reasure the neighbors that only 'limited' objectives were in mind - like the incapacition of nuclear research facilities and the takeover of Iranian oilfields in ethnically Arab areas. This would be to take a leaf out of Saddam Hussein's book, of course. Then he was almost an ally of the West until he did something stupid like invading Kuweit, an oilfield to far. This 'limited' strategy would also reassure the markets on the oil supply question and afford a useful bargaining counter to ensure the status quo ante. Even this 'safwer' strategy is fraught with uncertainties of course. Why can't they all be reasonable.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

JCD — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 00:29:15 -0000

"This can, and very likely will, happen. The signs are very clear. The only question is, what can we do about it?"

Absolutely nothing. Everyone who thinks like you and says the things you say are nothing more than a bunch of pathetic, parakeet liberal males and hags that are ruled by their emotions.

You'll do nothing, because you are capable of so little to begin with, much less using your brain to search for facts without letting your pre-conceived world views and what you want to believe get in the way of reality.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Jordan — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:22:06 -0000

Well, what can we do about it? For those of us who agree that this is very likely to happen and not that the media will not face any backlash from the people when they spew jingoisms on the news... What can we actually do to voice out against it?

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Harry — Tue, 06 May 2008 05:15:34 -0000

I'm afraid you might be right Daniel.

It's a fight for control of the Middle East and its oil, and all the pieces are set up for this game. It only takes the right time. I think they might use a combination of all three options you mentioned.

The recently opened Iranian oil bourse will only be an extra stimulus for attack, as it takes the dollar further away from being the petrodollar and global trade currency. Saddam could do what he liked until he started to sell his oil for Euros.

But I'm afraid Cheney will go atomic for this one as the military is stretched thin. They will certainly avoid damaging the oil wells and industry, so they might glaze the cities.

Who will be able to stop them?

After that I expect decades of insurgencies and attacks on pipelines and installations.

It would be much wiser to invest all those recourses, lives and money into research for sustainable energy. But I'm pretty sure that this is not on any agenda as this would mean the end of the power game. Unless a new source of energy would end up in the hands of only a few...

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

matt p — Mon, 05 May 2008 17:30:37 -0000

I think you're a bit wrong. I don't doubt they'd try, but Congress and the senate were made to look shamefully stupid last time around. This time I think they'll favor saving face. Bush ran out of using "It would be unamerican not to support this war". I don't think I'm optimistic, I just don't think he can pull it off twice.

The other thing is that oil, which is a big piece of the war, is not as important as it was in Iran even a year ago. There are 4 oil markets including the 3 original and the new Iranian Oil Bourse. The IOB trades in Euros, which have now become less of a trading commodity due to the inflatin in the US and the crashing dollar. As the fed continues to print more money, it decreases the power of the Iranian oil exchange.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Rick — Mon, 05 May 2008 17:20:00 -0000

Odds are strong that we'll be at War with most of the European Union, Russia, and Communist China by the Fall of '08. Dictator Cheney will not relinquish his power in January and the true face of evil will be seen.

We're screwed.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

James — Mon, 05 May 2008 16:19:04 -0000

What the hell is comment #6 by Greg Bacon? Where is this from?

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

raytube720 — Mon, 05 May 2008 14:49:21 -0000

All the time I think of my friend Koshrow from Tehran. His father sent him and his brother here right before the revolution. He asked me in 1999, 'Are you not voting for Bushy?' I said of course not, I'm a Gore man. I advised him at that time that if Bush is elected, expect us to attack somebody, and to invest in what Bush and Cheney have investments in, Oil and Defense. Of course, I figured it would be N. Korea.
But now, I'm saddened to know that someone who fled his country to come to america has voted for someone who wants to attack their homeland.
Anyway, as we have seen with this term, the person with the real untouchable power is the vice president, so I don't care who is running for president, just show me the veep.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

kev — Mon, 05 May 2008 14:33:52 -0000

"what can we do about it" ?

Absolutely nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Unless you're willing to set yourself on fire in DC or something.

No one will listen to you.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Jose — Mon, 05 May 2008 14:17:35 -0000

the only thing to do is take over the news broadcasts to get a lil truth out there. Sneak up on a live broadcast and say "Don't Invade Iran!!" Non violent resistance.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Ben Schiendelman — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:41:59 -0000

We can't do much about it in the short term.

In the long term, we can do all sorts of things to stop creating new "mouthbreathers".

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

John — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:38:23 -0000

I'm not sure if even neocons will try this, but if they do, this summer will be the time. After all, the chances of them getting another four years in the WH are pretty slim, and you can smell the desperation and fear in the sweat dripping of their sloped brow ridges.

However, one big barrier is simply the lack of available forces to accomplish the job. Granted, the invasion of Iraq was done on an anemic shoestring as well, but they're even out of shoestrings at this point. Then there's the growing fracture in the neocon base, the republican party. Its presidential candidate is in trouble both financially and politically. Fundraising isn't gong well for McBush, and he's having a hard time solidifying his base. Ironically, Hillary may be the neocons' only viable option at this point.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

James — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:28:11 -0000

The spirit of Napolean strikes again, except Napolean at least had some intelligence.

Back to Spice Wars 2008. Our Congress is too scared of more white powder being sent in the mail to do anything about our dictator Cheney.

Re: War With Iran Before November: A Prediction + Scenarios

Jack Alexander — Mon, 05 May 2008 11:06:11 -0000

I see that I am not the only one predicting this scenario. I expect it because the neo-cons will do this to complicate the election, if not entirely eliminate it since W has a Unitary governmental powers. It might even be used to rally the herd into thinking that Iran is a threat and that we need a hawk at the helm. Either way things do not look good for the Persians or us. If you pray to someone do so now. Stupid is as stupid does.