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Google already has Orkut - why would they go to the trouble of creating a new system?
They'll have a mission getting everyone to convert; Facebook has reached "critical mass" where enough users are there that they won't want to leave unless there's a very good reason.
If you have a network with all your friends on, and a network which is better but not used by anyone you know, which will you stick with?
Orkut is still trapped in the friendster era, which is really a shame because it had an excellent userbase in the months after its beta release.
I'm hoping they just use Orkut as a learning experience, and then do a migration over to the superior technology ( i.e. Yahoo Photos -> Flickr, Orkut -> Goobook(?) ).
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