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Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

Pale — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 12:16:18 -0000

The problem with people is that they don't see how all structures become old and finally die. A tree grows and it will eventually start dying.

You take from a corrective move what you can and try to use it as a stepping stone into something other than it.

But people always find something precious that they attach themselves to and they think it will solve all the problems.

Whatever works, works only as long as it works.

No sooner is there some structure that the collective sees valuable everyone will begin glueing their own interests to it.

Reddit will go through all the similar cycles of corruption as any other posse.

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

sucker punch — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 13:27:30 -0000

I always make sure I'm exposed to both conservative and liberal commentary...by watching both John Stewart and The Colbert Report.

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

JoseMonkey — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:44:50 -0000

Daniel, this is a great point that I've often struggled with.

Unfortunately, what I tend to find is that the people who exhibit the most extreme cases of confirmation bias (and other logical pitfalls) never think about stuff like this, at least not in reference to their own beliefs.

Most people simply aren't that introspective. They don't question their own beliefs and don't constantly try to assess their own objectivity (or lack of it).

Sadly, the truly thoughtful folks -- the ones that devote time and effort to being informed and having defensible positions -- are the only ones who engage in this sort of self-conscious hand wringing. So, we step back to examine what we believe and engage in what amounts to a masturbatory, neurotic exercise. I say it's masturbatory because I often find that our political opponents don't care that we've tried to maintain objectivity; our positions will still be derided as biased, partisan, and dogmatic.

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

shane — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:58:44 -0000

http://www.heritage.org//Pr...
Here is another interesting bit about Democrats and the current financial crisis. Skip the first few sensational paragraphs to get to the good stuff.

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

Michael S. Black — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 22:15:26 -0000

So.......

Watching the debate on DVR... and I get to 9:38, where Tom/Jim/John says I opposed the president "On torture of prisoners"....

Seriously, is it just me, or do the chills reverberate over the aether?!

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

CarlM — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 16:49:32 -0000

I'm not sure if you've heard this episode of This American Life or not. It does a GREAT job of explaining what led to the housing / mortgage crisis. It's all about a Giant Pool of Money.

http://www.thislife.org/Rad...

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

Maxo — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 16:08:45 -0000

I tried to overcome this by listening to the right-winged radio pundits like Limbaugh, Savage, etc. That was a mistake.

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

Adam Young — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 15:41:48 -0000

I found that talking politics when I lived in SF was frustrating: everyone agreed. Now that I live in Boston, I run agains far more conservatives everywhere, and it really allows me to examine the issues. I love it. And the nice thing about Boston conservativees: the yare intelligent. They've thought through there positions, and don't tend to fall back on religious arguments.

Of course, far too many of them to regurgitate the talking points that have already been debunked. We can only do so much.

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

TIMM — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 14:07:02 -0000

Dude, I applaud this. Totally, totally, totally.

Expand your inputs. Educate yourself to expert levels on the pro AND cons on each issue from both or multiple perspectives.

I'm a Republican, and I tell people that they should be open to opposing points of view. In doing so they will either validate their own on new points, or old ones, or find that they have better choices simply because they talked about it.

Telling others to be open-minded is much easier that simply being open-minded, and yet to be assured that it's worthwhile, I will occassionally educate the opposition in their own rhetoric, to take the conversation to the next level, and give them more than one thing to think about.

Again, I'm a Republican. It doesn't mean I'm Pro-Life. It doesn't mean I'm Pro-Creationist. And having any party affiliation doesn't mean I must be closed to better options.

Daniel, please continue this line. Thank you.

-=T=-

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

dale — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:25:23 -0000

Haven't most of your posts fallen into this? Too many people try and make an issue black or white when it actually is quite grey.

@Michael S Black - good commentary.

Re: Contemplating Confirmation Bias

Michael S Black — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:14:51 -0000

Well if the VAST majority of the nation makes under 200k/year or so and the Dems represent this category, then by definition of a Democracy (which the US IS NOT, we are a republic), they are representing the majority, hence are "right".

Sure, there were economists who suggested ultra-low rates and weak underwriting procedures might cause the current issues years ago, but if you ask Joe-Six Pack (as DM might say, a typical mouth-breather) whether he cares if the economy MIGHT tank in 10 years because his home loan is too large and at too low a rate to be sustainable, he'll laugh, show you his new deck and say “Paid for it using the president’s Tax stimulus check, don’tcha know!”

note: I used economic indicators, but it could be anything that divides the nation into unequal population groups with extreme levels of emotion and/or devotion to an idea, the Iraq war in the 2004 election is a prime example

I've got plenty of knocks on Obama, but like I said when we were at BH, I will vote for him. McCain has…..disappointed me, to say the least.

Remember, I used to like him in 2000, but he finally lost me when he voted AGAINST banning torture, thus opening up its use on OUR soldiers. He did it because he knew it would make him appear strong to the pro-war right (and because the White house indicated it would veto the bill anyway). This kind of personal flip-flop (as a POW who WAS tortured, to not vote against banning it is the WORST example of selling your soul for politics) is why many who formerly supported him have nothing but distaste and a lingering sense of disappointment. Hard to get those people to defend him, isn’t it?

If you're looking for intelligent Pro-McCain commentary, get off the internet and talk to his local people. The campaign the national org is running hasn't really provided much chance for his supporters to be proud of his words or actions, so it gets tough to defend him.